The Portland Trail Blazers have reached a crossroads in their 2019-2020 season, they’re a half-game out of a playoff spot in the loaded Western Conference despite being plagued with injuries and a seriously shallow roster. Neil Olshey and the rest of the Trail Blazers' front office have to make a decision on what the team will do for the rest of the season. Do they trade their most valuable young assets and expiring contracts to make a push this season? Or do they mail it in the rest of this year to recharge and get healthy this offseason so they can make a serious run at a championship in 2020-2021? Both are serious options the Blazers should consider but what possible rosters could the Blazers put together for the playoff pushes in either season and what are the factors going into each choice.
This will be the first of two blog posts the second will discuss possible offseason moves the Blazers can make in the event they fold on this season.
Circumstance one: the Blazers trade Hassan Whiteside, Kent Bazemore (expiring money) as well as young assets (Nassir Little, Anfernee Simons, Zach Collins) and future picks to be competitive this year and make a playoff push.
This is the more likely of the two options for several reasons but faces a few difficulties that I’ll dive into later. The first reason for making the deal now is the sustained success the Blazers have experienced over the last several seasons, it is evidently very important to management to remain competitive and in the playoff picture even if the team doesn't have championship aspirations. Second is the importance of building off of the conference finals appearance last season as opposed to throwing it all away when the team you have in place can be just as competent in a crowded Western Conference if some changes are made. The third and maybe most important reason is to maintain the happiness of superstar Damian Lillard. Dame has given his all to Portland in his time there and with Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports recently commenting on Lillard’s unhappiness, management owes it to him to put together a competent supporting cast that will help him build on his legacy and win an NBA championship.
This is the more likely of the two options for several reasons but faces a few difficulties that I’ll dive into later. The first reason for making the deal now is the sustained success the Blazers have experienced over the last several seasons, it is evidently very important to management to remain competitive and in the playoff picture even if the team doesn't have championship aspirations. Second is the importance of building off of the conference finals appearance last season as opposed to throwing it all away when the team you have in place can be just as competent in a crowded Western Conference if some changes are made. The third and maybe most important reason is to maintain the happiness of superstar Damian Lillard. Dame has given his all to Portland in his time there and with Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports recently commenting on Lillard’s unhappiness, management owes it to him to put together a competent supporting cast that will help him build on his legacy and win an NBA championship.
But how do you do that? The crop of talented game-changing players that are going to be on the trade block this season are few and far between. There are several high-class talents on below .500 teams that could certainly help the Blazers but all of these teams have solid reasons to hold on to their talent as opposed to blowing it up.
The New Orleans Pelican’s will want to hold onto Jrue Holiday for the return of Zion Williamson and maintain the ability to make a push for the playoffs. Jrue is on a fair deal making $26 Million/Year and the Pelicans have surged recently due to improved play from Ingram and Ball as well as the return of Derrick Favors (who may be the most underrated big in the league). The value of having a good team for the emergence of a star like Zion is immensely important and the Pelicans hope to transition into win-now mode upon his arrival.
The Detroit Pistons may have considered giving up Blake Griffin to pivot into a rebuild for their future as they have little talent on the roster right now. However Griffin decided to end his season by opting for surgery on his chronically injured knee, therefore he’s off the table.
Both the Washington Wizards and Golden State Warriors signed their respective stars to lucrative extensions so Bradley Beal and Draymond Green won’t be eligible to be traded until after the season concludes.
Danilo Gallinari may be available from the OKC Thunder and is the most likely to be dealt with those discussed thus far but it's unlikely as the Thunder have been surging and most likely want to make a push for the playoffs in the competitive Western Conference. OKC is sitting comfortably in 7th place in the West with as many games separating them from the 4th seed in the conference to the 8th seed. Furthermore, Galo isn’t enough for the Blazers to move the needle. He’s an excellent and highly skilled scorer but he gets injured often and lacks the intangible skills the team would need from him such as screen setting and rebounding.
There was a period where the San Antonio Spurs may have been ready to move on from Trail Blazers legend LaMarcus Aldridge but they’ve been fantastical lately with huge wins over the Bucks and Celtics. The Spurs are sitting the 8th seed right now and have a lot of momentum so it’s unlikely they’d want to blow the team up now.
Therefore there’s really only one realistic trade that can be made for a star that would rejuvenate the Blazers in a way that can turn their season around and allow them to win enough games in Nurkic's and Collins’ absence to make the playoffs with a decent seed. Here’s what I propose that trade be.
Kevin Love and Ante Zizic for Hassan Whiteside, Nassir Little, a First Round Pick, and a Second Round Pick
This is far and away from the most realistic option for the Blazers. Love’s money matches Whiteside’s and the Cavaliers are the far into their rebuilding process, without the need for an aging star. The 31-year-old is set to make an average of $30 Million a season for the next 4 years, that’s cap space the Cavs would surely value more in other ways like taking on bad contracts with assets. This trade makes too much sense for both sides, Kevin Love is wasting away the final years of his prime on a terrible Cleveland team and Hassan Whiteside will be entirely redundant on the Blazers roster once Nurkic returns.
Love would be able to slide directly into the starting Power Forward spot for the Blazers and would be an excellent floor spacing weapon during Lillard/Nurkic pick and rolls. Nurkic is an extremely underrated passer (3.2 assists/game last year) and Love would surely benefit from his vision. Kevin Love would provide the Blazers with something they haven’t from a starting lineup in years, two effective screen setters. Love is an excellent screen-setter, the Blazers have always been a heavy screen setting team, utilizing flare screens in addition to the usual pick and roll sets. Terry Stott’s would really be able to flex his creativity with the addition of Love into the lineup and I suspect the Blazers offense would transform into one of the leagues most dangerous.
Ante Zizic fits into this equation because he makes the right amount of money and he can eat up some minutes at Centre until Collins and Nurkic make their returns. Olshey has historically loved being overstocked with Centres so this addition fits his mold perfectly.
Here’s what the Blazers Depth Chart would look like after this trade at least until Nurkic and Collins return:
That doesn’t look half bad but the Blazers would retain one of the biggest issues they have, a complete lack of reliable bench depth at the wing positions. This is largely due to Rodney Hood going down with a torn Achilles tendon. Ideally, they need to upgrade the Bazemore, Hezonja and Tolliver spots if they want to be competitive this year. However, due to the salaries of those three players finding suitable trade partners becomes pretty tough.
The Blazers can look at a deal like this that would see multiple veteran wings coming in from different cities. Of course, draft picks would have to be attached as compensation but it would be difficult to imagine that Ariza and Crowder would be too difficult to pry away.
After these two trades and the return of Nurkic and Collins, the Blazers roster would be fleshed out and very, very deep with a great bench and a plethora of lineup options.
Of course, this leaves the Blazers with a very deep frontcourt and a shallow backcourt that would have to rely heavily on Anfernee Simons but the addition of Yogi Ferrell would help carry some of the guard workload.
That being said the Blazers do have a $2.86 million injured player exception that can be used to sign a player due to Rodney Hood’s season-ending injury. Iman Shumpert should be the top candidate to be signed to take that spot as he’s currently a free agent but I suspect the Blazers will save the exception for a player who gets bought out of their contract by a lottery team after the trade deadline.
So magically if I’m 100% correct and Neil Olshey manages to pull off some incredible moves to propel the Blazers into championship contention the roster will end up being quite complete and could run with the best teams in the West. However it isn’t that simple and just because the ESPN trade machine will allow it, the other teams GM may not. Either way, this has been a fun exercise and I look forward to completing part 2 soon to compare this make-believe roster with one that the Blazers may be able to piece together to contend next season, look for that to come in a couple of days.
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